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Opioid misuse is taking a tremendous toll on the nation. In 2015, the amount of opioids prescribed was enough for every American to be medicated around the clock for three weeks. From 1997 to 2017, more than 702,000 people died from a drug overdose and nearly 68% of those deaths involved a prescription. Today, the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating the crisis.

As a healthcare analytics organization with an exemplary team of data scientists, we believed we could create a data model to predict the overdose and abuse of opioids. And we did.

For people who have received at least one opioid prescription, our model*+ predicts that person’s likelihood of an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose in the coming six months.

Evaluated on several independent datasets, Geneia’s predictive model accurately identified 80 to 88 percent of the people who are likely to have an opioid abuse diagnosis or an overdose event in the next six months.


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*Certain data used in this study were supplied by International Business Machines Corporation. Any analysis, interpretation, or conclusion based on these data is solely that of the authors and not International Business Machines Corporation.

+Predictive models, by their very nature, contain certain assumptions. This is not an attempt to practice medicine or provide specific medical advice, and it should not be used to make a diagnosis or to replace or overrule a qualified healthcare provider's judgment.